Getting the right odds?

I’ve continued to play the deep stack tournament at Hustler on Sunday with no luck.  2 weeks ago, I was down to 2 tables and was all-in with about 48,000 chips with AJ against A7 and lost almost all my chips when the 7 hit on the flop.  If I had won that hand, I would have been in good position to win the tournament with about 80,000 chips.

Last week, I didn’t do as well and got knocked out half way.  Afterwards, I tried my luck at the $300-$500 no limit table.  In a span of about 30 minutes, I got pocket Kings, Aces, then Kings again.  On the first hand, there was a $10 live straddle and 4 callers to me in the big blind.  I wake up with the Kings and raised to $50.  That wasn’t enough because all 4 people called me.  Luckily, the flop was rainbow and low cards so I bet out $300 and took down the pot.

The very next hand, while the table is asking me if I stole that pot, I wake up with Aces.  I raise to $20 and I get 2 callers.  Once again, the flop is very safe and I bet $60 and take down the pot.  However, the lady in seat 2 comments that I’m running over the table.

Just a few hands later, there is a $20 raise from player 1 (in seat 1), a call from seat 3, and I again wake up with pocket Kings in the blind.  I raise to $60 and both players call.  The flop is 9, 10, Jack rainbow.  I hate this flop.  This is the type of flop that somebody trying to crack Aces would come in with, so I check.

Player 1 bets $80, and player 2 in seat 3 flat calls.  The way player 1 was talking told me he thought he had a strong hand.  If he has the nuts (King, Queen), I’m drawing almost dead and would need a Queen just to chop.  I also had no idea what player 2 called with.  Before the flop, there was about $180 in the pot.  Now, with $160 more in there, there’s $340.  I decide to flat call the $80 to see what comes next.  At the time, I didn’t know it, but the odds were 60% to 37% in his favor.

Cochinoman Player 1
Flop Turn River

The turn is a very safe looking 4.  I once again check and player 1 immediately goes all in for $220.  player 2 folds after thinking a little, and it’s back to me.

At this point, I’m pretty sure I’m behind.  If player 1 has King, Queen, I’m drawing almost dead.  If he has something like Queen, Jack (top pair and open ended), I’m ahead.  But I didn’t think that’s what he had.  If he had top 2 (Jack, 10), I needed a King (for a set), Queen (for a straight), 9 (for a higher 2 pair), or a 4 (for a higher 2 pair).

If I knew exactly what he had, then I would know that at this point, player 1 is a 73% to 27% favorite.  The pot has $420 plus his $220 (total $640) and I need to call $220 (about 2.9 to 1).  So I’m getting the right odds to call here, assuming he has 2 pair.  But if he has a straight, I’m drawing to a Queen for a chop.  There’s so much money in the pot, after thinking for a while, I decide to gamble and call.

The board pairs another 4 on the river and player 1 declares he has 3 pairs.  That’s exactly what I wanted to hear (and not “Full House”) and I show my bigger 2 pair (Kings and 4s).  Player 1 can’t understand why I called the turn when he went all-in.  In hind sight, it was a good call but it wasn’t an easy call.

After this hand, 2 players leave and the table breaks and I get to leave with my nice winnings.

About the Author

Regarding my poker background, I’ve been playing since 2003 (yes, the Moneymaker factor), and have won several small tournaments, and have cashed at the main event of the World Series of Poker. I also play cash games at local casinos and sometimes at home games.

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