Getting the right odds?

I’ve continued to play the deep stack tournament at Hustler on Sunday with no luck.  2 weeks ago, I was down to 2 tables and was all-in with about 48,000 chips with AJ against A7 and lost almost all my chips when the 7 hit on the flop.  If I had won that hand, I would have been in good position to win the tournament with about 80,000 chips.

Last week, I didn’t do as well and got knocked out half way.  Afterwards, I tried my luck at the $300-$500 no limit table.  In a span of about 30 minutes, I got pocket Kings, Aces, then Kings again.  On the first hand, there was a $10 live straddle and 4 callers to me in the big blind.  I wake up with the Kings and raised to $50.  That wasn’t enough because all 4 people called me.  Luckily, the flop was rainbow and low cards so I bet out $300 and took down the pot.

The very next hand, while the table is asking me if I stole that pot, I wake up with Aces.  I raise to $20 and I get 2 callers.  Once again, the flop is very safe and I bet $60 and take down the pot.  However, the lady in seat 2 comments that I’m running over the table.

Just a few hands later, there is a $20 raise from player 1 (in seat 1), a call from seat 3, and I again wake up with pocket Kings in the blind.  I raise to $60 and both players call.  The flop is 9, 10, Jack rainbow.  I hate this flop.  This is the type of flop that somebody trying to crack Aces would come in with, so I check.

Player 1 bets $80, and player 2 in seat 3 flat calls.  The way player 1 was talking told me he thought he had a strong hand.  If he has the nuts (King, Queen), I’m drawing almost dead and would need a Queen just to chop.  I also had no idea what player 2 called with.  Before the flop, there was about $180 in the pot.  Now, with $160 more in there, there’s $340.  I decide to flat call the $80 to see what comes next.  At the time, I didn’t know it, but the odds were 60% to 37% in his favor.

Cochinoman			Player 1

Flop				Turn	River

The turn is a very safe looking 4.  I once again check and player 1 immediately goes all in for $220.  player 2 folds after thinking a little, and it’s back to me.

At this point, I’m pretty sure I’m behind.  If player 1 has King, Queen, I’m drawing almost dead.  If he has something like Queen, Jack (top pair and open ended), I’m ahead.  But I didn’t think that’s what he had.  If he had top 2 (Jack, 10), I needed a King (for a set), Queen (for a straight), 9 (for a higher 2 pair), or a 4 (for a higher 2 pair).

If I knew exactly what he had, then I would know that at this point, player 1 is a 73% to 27% favorite.  The pot has $420 plus his $220 (total $640) and I need to call $220 (about 2.9 to 1).  So I’m getting the right odds to call here, assuming he has 2 pair.  But if he has a straight, I’m drawing to a Queen for a chop.  There’s so much money in the pot, after thinking for a while, I decide to gamble and call.

The board pairs another 4 on the river and player 1 declares he has 3 pairs.  That’s exactly what I wanted to hear (and not “Full House”) and I show my bigger 2 pair (Kings and 4s).  Player 1 can’t understand why I called the turn when he went all-in.  In hind sight, it was a good call but it wasn’t an easy call.

After this hand, 2 players leave and the table breaks and I get to leave with my nice winnings.